Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b39…d3d5 crypto 338 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$172 (-6%) realized −$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%142W / 196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$217
7 days−$217
14 days−$217
30 days−$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$190
other 0% −$3
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -18.1% -25.9% 50% 50% -21.5%
≤30d 114 -18.1% -25.9% 50% 50% -21.5%
≤90d 338 -20.2% -27.8% 42% 38% -15.5%
all 338 -20.2% -27.8% 42% 38% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 38% -15.5%
10% -34.7% 30% -23.6%
15% -41.0% 23% -31.0%
20% -46.8% 19% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses142 / 196
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)338 / 338
History coverage81d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 338 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$28 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $41 −$23 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$16 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$23 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$14 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$14 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$9 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $8 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $12 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $7 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $14 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $27 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $59 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $19 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $41 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 951 history records