Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:24:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b39…8b50 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$109 (-16%) realized −$111 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-48.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -42.7% -48.1% 19% 19% -27.0%
≤30d 16 -42.7% -48.1% 19% 19% -27.0%
≤90d 16 -42.7% -48.1% 19% 19% -27.0%
all 16 -42.7% -48.1% 19% 19% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.1% 19% -27.0%
10% ← realistic here -53.1% 19% -34.0%
15% -57.6% 19% -40.4%
20% -61.8% 19% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -86% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$28 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Hugo Gaston 35¢ 36¢ $66 $68 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $18 −$7 -43%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $114 −$96 -85%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $50 −$49 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $10 −$5 -48%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $9 −$7 -82%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $72 −$72 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $40 −$39 -99%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $13 −$5 -41%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $28 −$28 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $38 +$62 +165%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $101 +$93 +92%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $61 +$95 +156%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS Jun 27 $21 −$14 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Hugo Gaston 35¢ $36 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 0¢ $7 5h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 0¢ $3 5h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $10 5h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 18¢ $5 5h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 18¢ $0 5h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 18¢ $0 5h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 18¢ $0 5h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 18¢ $2 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Hugo Gaston 34¢ $32 6h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 9¢ $18 6h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 57¢ $48 6h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 57¢ $66 6h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 24¢ $29 7h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $11 7h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 49¢ $10 8h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 49¢ $6 8h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 49¢ $1 8h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 43¢ $6 8h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 31¢ $16 8h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Karmine Corp 5¢ $5 8h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 1¢ $2 8h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 9¢ $10 9h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 6¢ $9 9h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $6 29h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 25¢ $10 30h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 41¢ $25 31h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 41¢ $6 31h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 58¢ $8 32h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 58¢ $29 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.16 · official $68.16 (match) · 55 history records