Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b37…17bd sports 462 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,660 (-8%) realized −$2,659 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%144W / 313L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$507est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$43
14 days−$622
30 days−$1,962
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$2,444
other 14% −$1,101
finance 3% +$604
world 2% −$200
politics 1% +$1
tech 1% +$96
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -28.1% -34.9% 40% 20% -27.5%
≤30d 52 -53.1% -57.6% 15% 13% -45.1%
≤90d 434 -25.4% -32.5% 29% 28% -20.4%
all 457 -19.9% -27.5% 32% 30% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 30% -17.8%
10% -34.5% 30% -25.7%
15% -40.8% 29% -32.9%
20% -46.6% 26% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$57 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$2,659
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses144 / 313
Est. fees paid−$507
Open positions3
Markets (closed)457 / 462
History coverage109d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $18 −$4 (-17%)
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists Yes 10¢ 12¢ $12 $14 +$3 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $118 +$5 +4%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$32 +156%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $29 −$29 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $12 −$12 -97%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 06 $30 +$70 +233%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $86 −$63 -74%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 06 $24 −$23 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $264 −$261 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $34 −$33 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5 May 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $239 −$234 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner May 24 $76 +$124 +163%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $37 +$93 +249%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 24 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) May 24 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) May 24 $11 −$11 -97%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5) May 24 $23 −$22 -97%
Aston Villa FC leading at halftime? May 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $21 −$3 -12%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $154 −$152 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 22 $285 −$279 -98%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 May 22 $56 −$55 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline May 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $118 +$326 +276%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 21 $339 −$332 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 21 $89 −$7 -8%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 May 20 $152 −$150 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 20 $140 −$140 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Ugo Humbert vs Karen Khachanov May 20 $511 −$232 -45%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 2 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $39 −$38 -97%
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5) May 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $291 +$897 +309%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) May 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $417 −$412 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $194 −$191 -98%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 1 - 3 Manchester City FC? May 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will BUY 23¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY 12¢ $46 12h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $46 13h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes $14 13h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 13h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $0 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $16 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $51 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $52 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $21 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $34 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli $8 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 16¢ $16 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 18¢ $18 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 42¢ $13 10d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres BUY New York Mets 12¢ $12 10d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $48 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $55 11d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 30¢ $31 11d
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 BUY No 10¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.42 · official $100.85 · 1358 history records