Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:20:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4B 0x4b36…3c22 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$59 (-29%) realized −$51 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$16
other 20% −$40
weather 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +149.9% +126.1% 33% 33% -34.0%
≤30d 5 +49.9% +35.7% 20% 20% -45.9%
≤90d 5 +49.9% +35.7% 20% 20% -45.9%
all 5 +49.9% +35.7% 20% 20% -45.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.7% 20% -45.9%
10% +22.7% 20% -51.1%
15% +10.8% 20% -55.8%
20% -0.0% 20% -60.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$29 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage27d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $74 $66 −$8 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$65 +650%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $75 −$73 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 29? May 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $75 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $75 11h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 11h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 11h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 24d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 29? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.96 · official $65.96 (match) · 8 history records