Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:51:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4B 0x4b30…4b79 world 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$175 (+8%) realized +$143 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$446per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$758now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$135
world 36% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.9% -2.4% 100% 50% +0.8%
≤30d 2 +7.9% -2.4% 100% 50% +0.8%
≤90d 2 +7.9% -2.4% 100% 50% +0.8%
all 2 +7.9% -2.4% 100% 50% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 50% +0.8%
10% -11.7% 0% -8.9%
15% -20.2% 0% -17.7%
20% -28.1% 0% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$72 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$758
Realized+$143
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage7d
Avg bet$446
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $449 $443 −$6 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 63¢ 72¢ $209 $241 +$32 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 91¢ $68 $75 +$7 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $320 +$3 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $939 +$141 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $161 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $59 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $59 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $56 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $323 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $204 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $68 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $117 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $209 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 2d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 80¢ $402 3d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 75¢ $37 3d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 76¢ $87 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 98¢ $130 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 98¢ $300 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $81 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $127 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 75¢ $91 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 75¢ $21 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $155 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $758.06 · official $758.47 (match) · 24 history records