Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

4B 0x4b2f…318b sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$193 (-7%) realized −$209 · open +$16

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%16W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$96per market

Trades / day6.8pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$413now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+2.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	26	+12.8%	+2.1%	62%	62%	-18.9%
≤30d	26	+12.8%	+2.1%	62%	62%	-18.9%
≤90d	26	+12.8%	+2.1%	62%	62%	-18.9%
all	26	+12.8%	+2.1%	62%	62%	-18.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+2.1%	62%	-18.9%
10%	-7.7%	58%	-26.6%
15%	-16.6%	46%	-33.7%
20%	-24.8%	35%	-40.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +21% → late +4% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$40 vs −$89 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.73 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$413

Realized−$209

Unrealized+$16

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses16 / 10

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions3

Markets (closed)26 / 29

History coverage6d

Avg bet$96

Trades / day6.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$150	$149	−$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Over	55¢	56¢	$147	$148	+$1 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Portugal	53¢	62¢	$100	$116	+$16 (+16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$5	+$2	+38%
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 17	$46	+$54	+116%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$3	−$3	-97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$26	+$27	+105%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$15	−$15	-98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$102	+$23	+23%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$25	+$23	+93%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$102	+$41	+40%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$126	+$98	+78%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 16	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$144	−$144	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 16	$355	−$355	-100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia?	Jun 16	$26	+$16	+61%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$153	−$112	-73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$144	−$46	-32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$305	−$100	-33%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	+$47	+91%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	+$41	+81%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$102	+$49	+48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 14	$36	−$13	-36%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 14	$5	$0	-9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$101	+$18	+17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$102	+$54	+53%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$89	+$25	+28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$103	+$110	+107%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$51	+$18	+35%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$149	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$153	1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	53¢	$102	1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan?	BUY Yes	71¢	$5	11h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	5¢	$3	11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	95¢	$53	12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5	BUY Under	57¢	$15	13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$26	13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	45¢	$46	13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	80¢	$102	15h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	51¢	$25	16h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	70¢	$102	19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$126	26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	19¢	$41	43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	63¢	$99	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	54¢	$205	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	90¢	$144	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	78¢	$305	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$153	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	52¢	$102	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	54¢	$51	3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	66¢	$102	3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL MOUZ	21¢	$23	3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY MOUZ	31¢	$36	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	SELL Gen.G	54¢	$5	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY Gen.G	58¢	$5	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	23¢	$41	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$102	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	84¢	$101	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.21 · official $433.34 · 56 history records