Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:09:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b2d…411c
crypto · 25 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$653 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$552 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$552
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day61.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$552
7 days−$552
14 days−$552
30 days−$552
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $391 −$391 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $109 −$105 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $127 −$126 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $606 −$606 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $307 +$155 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$8 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$129 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $208 +$279 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $316 −$316 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$23 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$39 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $181 −$177 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$78 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $105 +$228 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$79 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $105 +$186 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $105 +$275 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $207 +$168 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$24 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$552
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $7 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $67 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $56 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $50 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $34 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $49 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $302 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $114 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $49 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $106 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $93 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $203 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 40% -23.7%
≤30d 25 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 40% -23.7%
≤90d 25 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 40% -23.7%
all 25 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 40% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover61.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 40% -23.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 40% -31.0%
15% -25.7% 40% -37.7%
20% -33.0% 40% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records