Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b2c…da3f sports 1685 markets active 20h ago coverage 276d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Covers last 275d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$487 (+1%) realized +$509 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate71%1186W / 483L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days−$250
14 days−$214
30 days−$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$9
other 38% +$403
weather 14% +$37
sports 6% +$78
economics 1% +$2
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% −$7
world 0% −$7
politics 0% −$43
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -3.8% -13.0% 90% 25% -13.3%
≤30d 194 -5.0% -14.1% 90% 12% -11.5%
≤90d 487 -5.0% -14.0% 79% 21% -9.9%
all 1669 -3.1% -12.3% 71% 31% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 31% -8.8%
10% -20.7% 19% -17.5%
15% -28.4% 13% -25.5%
20% -35.4% 10% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$509
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1186 / 483
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1669 / 1685
History coverage276d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1669 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+6%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $21 $6 −$15 (-72%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 51¢ 30¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 7¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 27¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-95%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 19? Jun 20 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $268 +$32 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $84 +$16 +18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $83 +$17 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 19 Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $186 +$14 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $86 +$14 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $182 +$18 +10%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $186 +$14 +7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $357 +$43 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $212 +$28 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $461 −$461 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $45 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $199 +$1 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 +$7 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $139 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 14? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $589 +$11 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $72 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $268 19h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $83 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $84 19h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $95 43h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $399 43h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $8 43h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 100¢ $100 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $4 43h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $4 43h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $186 43h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $86 43h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $99 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $182 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $186 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $212 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $357 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 16 BUY No 100¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 16 BUY No 100¢ $36 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $185 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 16 BUY No 100¢ $53 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $199 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $45 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $43 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.82 · official $209.82 (match) · 3484 history records