Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b2c…620f
crypto · 239 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$15 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$67 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses122 / 117
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage82d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 239 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$59
14 days−$67
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$67
politics 1% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -24.3% -31.5% 46% 27% -17.8%
≤30d 238 -19.3% -27.0% 51% 26% -17.7%
≤90d 239 -19.2% -26.9% 51% 26% -17.7%
all 239 -19.2% -26.9% 51% 26% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 26% -17.7%
10% -33.9% 16% -25.6%
15% -40.3% 12% -32.8%
20% -46.1% 7% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 686 history records