Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:13:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b29…cf86 crypto 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$832 (-6%) realized −$823 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%55W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$211
7 days−$211
14 days−$211
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,927
other 1% −$9
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.9% -14.9% 43% 43% -40.2%
≤30d 39 -12.1% -20.5% 36% 36% -5.5%
≤90d 154 -17.9% -25.7% 30% 30% -30.2%
all 171 -11.6% -20.0% 32% 32% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 32% -22.3%
10% -27.7% 32% -29.7%
15% -34.7% 30% -36.5%
20% -41.1% 29% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$79 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$823
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses55 / 116
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)171 / 175
History coverage94d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $60 $55 −$5 (-9%)
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 2 Algeria? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $235 −$235 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $81 +$153 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $69 +$40 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $32 +$36 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 04 $41 −$39 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 04 $111 −$107 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 04 $115 −$112 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 04 $175 +$40 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 04 $92 −$87 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 04 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 02 $97 −$94 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 02 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 02 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 02 $6 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 02 $115 −$103 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 02 $69 +$45 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 02 $40 +$29 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 02 $22 +$18 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 02 $14 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 02 $77 −$74 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 02 $103 +$986 +960%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $46 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 02 $21 +$24 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 01 $56 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $147 +$53 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 01 $49 +$54 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 01 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 01 $32 −$27 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 01 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 01 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 01 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 01 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 23 $322 −$307 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 23 $233 +$101 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 23 $127 +$152 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 23 $51 +$51 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 23 $76 −$72 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 23 $59 −$56 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 23 $146 −$140 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 23 $100 −$94 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06 BUY 10¢ $21 46m
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $235 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $234 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $108 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $41 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $4 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $68 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $17 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $93 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.31 · official $101.31 · 413 history records