Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b28…d5c2 crypto 1198 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 121d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$93 (-2%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%570W / 629L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$128
sports 1% +$17
other 1% −$11
world 0% −$8
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -2.9% -12.2% 65% 26% -9.2%
≤30d 31 -2.9% -12.2% 65% 26% -9.2%
≤90d 307 -2.4% -11.7% 66% 51% -15.1%
all 1199 -13.7% -21.9% 48% 38% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 38% -12.2%
10% -29.4% 28% -20.6%
15% -36.2% 21% -28.3%
20% -42.5% 16% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses570 / 629
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1199 / 1198
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1199 Trades
no open positions (186 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Wichita State Shockers Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 15 $6 −$4 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 15 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $27 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records