Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b28…15df
world · 470 markets active 1h ago
6.0score
+$7,674 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7,078 · open +$151
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,610
Realized+$7,078
Unrealized+$151
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses244 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions59
Markets (closed)413 / 470
History coverage131d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 59 History 413 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$301
14 days+$898
30 days+$2,001
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $345 $371 +$26 (+7%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $301 $352 +$51 (+17%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 67¢ 79¢ $271 $319 +$48 (+18%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $262 $262 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 71¢ 72¢ $142 $145 +$3 (+2%)
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Yes 12¢ 27¢ $47 $107 +$59 (+126%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 45¢ 64¢ $54 $77 +$23 (+42%)
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No 16¢ 50¢ $23 $72 +$49 (+212%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 76¢ 72¢ $76 $72 −$4 (-6%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $64 $66 +$2 (+4%)
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31? No 46¢ 87¢ $30 $57 +$27 (+91%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 77¢ 82¢ $51 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence? Yes 77¢ 66¢ $52 $44 −$7 (-14%)
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence? Yes 80¢ 83¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+3%)
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $150 $41 −$109 (-73%)
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $19 $39 +$19 (+102%)
Will Dan Sullivan vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $19 $30 +$10 (+54%)
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence? Yes 80¢ 54¢ $40 $27 −$13 (-32%)
Will John Cornyn vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence? Yes 81¢ 56¢ $38 $27 −$12 (-31%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-10%)
Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence? Yes 80¢ 56¢ $35 $24 −$11 (-31%)
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence? Yes 78¢ 52¢ $34 $22 −$11 (-34%)
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026? Yes 3¢ 15¢ $4 $20 +$16 (+355%)
Will Rand Paul vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence? Yes 78¢ 54¢ $28 $19 −$9 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $160 +$72 +45%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 13 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 13 $70 +$9 +12%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 12 $661 +$36 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $290 +$24 +8%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $104 +$12 +11%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $177 +$10 +6%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $129 +$7 +5%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $80 +$19 +24%
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jun 08 $333 +$47 +14%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $165 +$65 +39%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 30? Jun 07 $28 +$2 +6%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 03 $10 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $5 $0 +8%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? Jun 02 $10 $0 +3%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? Jun 02 $82 +$6 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $78 +$22 +28%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? Jun 02 $539 +$47 +9%
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31? Jun 02 $421 +$118 +28%
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jun 02 $478 +$404 +84%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 2? May 29 $27 −$5 -19%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 28 $534 +$38 +7%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 28 $122 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 28 $277 +$78 +28%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 28 $63 +$2 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $252 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 28 $173 +$113 +65%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $246 −$11 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $12 +$3 +25%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 25 $8 +$8 +109%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by June 15? May 25 $65 +$30 +47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $465 −$123 -26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $414 +$39 +9%
Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 May 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 23 $492 −$27 -5%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? May 23 $34 $0 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $988 +$73 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $164 −$43 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $128 +$160 +125%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? May 23 $2,110 +$242 +12%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22? May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 22 $146 +$70 +48%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? May 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 22 $45 +$6 +13%
Kash Patel out by May 31? May 22 $164 −$20 -12%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 22 $72 −$56 -78%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 21 $240 +$161 +67%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $559 +$10 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $154 +$24 +16%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 50% +$3,369
politics 24% +$2,690
other 19% +$929
finance 4% +$38
economics 2% +$256
sports 1% +$28
crypto 1% −$55
tech 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 28¢ $84 50m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 10¢ $30 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY Yes 7¢ $19 6h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 13¢ $3 7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 13¢ $2 7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 13¢ $2 7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 13¢ $6 7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 15¢ $15 7h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre SELL Yes 11¢ $22 9h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $11 9h
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $11 9h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 17h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $6 18h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $45 19h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 19h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 19h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 19h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 19h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 21h
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of Nationa BUY Yes 78¢ $34 21h
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National BUY Yes 78¢ $28 21h
Will Dan Sullivan vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National BUY Yes 78¢ $30 21h
Will Rand Paul vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Int BUY Yes 78¢ $28 21h
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National I BUY Yes 77¢ $52 22h
Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National BUY Yes 80¢ $35 22h
Will John Cornyn vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National I BUY Yes 81¢ $39 22h
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National I BUY Yes 80¢ $40 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +14.5% +3.6% 92% 50% +2.7%
≤30d 64 +16.9% +5.8% 75% 42% +3.9%
≤90d 271 +6.1% -4.0% 53% 35% -0.2%
all 413 +16.6% +5.5% 59% 41% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.5% 41% +2.1%
10% ← realistic here -4.6% 30% -7.6%
15% -13.8% 21% -16.6%
20% -22.2% 17% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,610.16 · official $2,608.74 (match) · 3500 history records