Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b26…5736 other 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate61%28W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$2
crypto 15% +$3
culture 10% +$2
economics 7% −$3
tech 6% $0
politics 6% +$6
world 4% +$1
finance 3% +$4
sports 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +16.8% +5.7% 50% 50% +6.1%
≤30d 8 -2.1% -11.5% 62% 38% -5.1%
≤90d 23 -1.7% -11.1% 70% 30% -8.6%
all 46 -2.0% -11.3% 61% 17% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 17% -8.2%
10% -19.8% 4% -17.0%
15% -27.6% 0% -25.0%
20% -34.7% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses28 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions20
Markets (closed)46 / 66
History coverage130d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $17 $16 −$2 (-9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 62¢ 19¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-68%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 80¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 94¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 74¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 87¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 100¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $300B and $350B at market close on IPO day? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 22 $11 +$4 +34%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 04 $10 $0 -1%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 04 $59 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 04 $12 +$3 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 04 $13 +$2 +16%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $21 −$4 -18%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $9 $0 +6%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 19 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 19 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $12 +$1 +11%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $3 $0 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 04 $9 +$1 +6%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 27 $20 +$2 +10%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 16 $46 −$1 -3%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $26 −$8 -30%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $11 +$1 +6%
Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $32 +$6 +19%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 28 $23 +$2 +8%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 28 $17 +$3 +20%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 28 $20 +$1 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Mar 21 $8 $0 +2%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 12? Mar 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $34 +$2 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 16 $18 +$1 +5%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 11 $13 +$3 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? Mar 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Mar 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February? Mar 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 03 $28 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Mar 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Flashbots be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $5 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on February 13? Feb 16 $0 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 13? Feb 16 $6 $0 +3%
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 12 $8 $0 +4%
Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 12 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $300B and $350B at market clos SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $300B and $350B at market clos BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL No 98¢ $25 1h
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 2h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 2h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $5 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 2h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $5 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $6 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 87¢ $5 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 80¢ $6 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.78 · official $43.62 · 254 history records