Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:16:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4B 0x4b25…141d other 27 markets active 4d ago coverage 736d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-4%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate60%15W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% −$19
crypto 10% +$3
other 5% −$6
sports 3% +$3
tech 1% $0
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -9.1% -17.7% 50% 50% -4.8%
≤30d 2 -9.1% -17.7% 50% 50% -4.8%
≤90d 4 -14.5% -22.7% 50% 25% -10.9%
all 25 +1.5% -8.1% 60% 36% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 36% -13.1%
10% -16.9% 36% -21.5%
15% -25.0% 36% -29.0%
20% -32.3% 28% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

736d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses15 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage736d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 65¢ 61¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success Jun 12 $3 +$2 +82%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Solana dip to $90 before 2026? Apr 14 $11 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Dec 24 $25 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 11 $5 $0 +3%
Week 2 UNC QB: Gio Lopez or Max Johnson Oct 20 $4 $0 +2%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $25 −$3 -12%
Mumbai Indians vs. Sunrisers Hyderabad Sep 19 $2 +$1 +72%
Will Liverpool win the 2024 Carabao Cup? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Mar 12 $3 $0 +1%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Feb 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 13 $115 −$14 -12%
76ers vs. Hornets Jan 13 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska? Dec 03 $2 +$2 +75%
Will another person be England's next manager? Nov 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel military response against Iran by Friday? Nov 20 $2 +$1 +37%
Bills vs. Jets Nov 20 $2 +$2 +85%
US Open: De Minaur vs. Draper Oct 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Reform win 7+ seats in UK Election? Sep 04 $1 $0 +43%
Iran military response by Friday? Sep 04 $2 +$2 +82%
Ethereum above $2,500 on August 16? Sep 04 $3 +$2 +67%
Court temporarily allows Texas to arrest migrants? Aug 12 $3 $0 +2%
Indian Election: Modi reelected? Jul 02 $95 −$1 -2%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Jun 07 $100 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 5d
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success BUY Yes 55¢ $3 26d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $3 39d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 39d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 64d
Will Solana dip to $90 before 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 175d
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? BUY No 98¢ $25 218d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 98¢ $5 240d
Week 2 UNC QB: Gio Lopez or Max Johnson BUY Lopez 98¢ $4 271d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $22 271d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $25 271d
Mumbai Indians vs. Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Mumbai Indians 58¢ $2 427d
Will Liverpool win the 2024 Carabao Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 462d
Bucks vs. Pelicans SELL Bucks 73¢ $3 462d
Bucks vs. Pelicans BUY Bucks 72¢ $3 481d
Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? SELL Yes $100 520d
Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? BUY Yes $115 520d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY No 34¢ $2 520d
76ers vs. Hornets BUY 76ers 65¢ $3 561d
Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska? BUY Alaska 57¢ $2 574d
Israel military response against Iran by Friday? BUY No 73¢ $2 611d
Bills vs. Jets BUY Bills 54¢ $2 611d
US Open: De Minaur vs. Draper BUY De Minaur 54¢ $2 651d
Will another person be England's next manager? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 651d
Ethereum above $2,500 on August 16? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 674d
Iran military response by Friday? BUY No 55¢ $2 674d
Will Reform win 7+ seats in UK Election? BUY No 70¢ $1 715d
Indian Election: Modi reelected? SELL Yes 97¢ $90 740d
Biden drops out of presidential race? SELL No 77¢ $99 740d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.11 · official $6.11 (match) · 52 history records