Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:02:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4B 0x4b25…d045 sports 485 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-3%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate61%295W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day37.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$14
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$53
crypto 11% −$7
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -11.4% -19.9% 61% 18% -14.6%
≤30d 309 -7.7% -16.5% 64% 17% -12.6%
≤90d 482 -10.0% -18.6% 61% 25% -13.9%
all 482 -10.0% -18.6% 61% 25% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 25% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 13% -22.2%
15% -33.5% 7% -29.7%
20% -40.0% 3% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses295 / 187
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)482 / 485
History coverage48d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day37.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 482 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Elise Mertens 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Leylah Fernandez 60¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 49¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $2 −$1 -25%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $4 $0 -10%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $6 +$1 +10%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $2 −$1 -60%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $3 $0 -8%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $3 −$1 -36%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $3 −$1 -28%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 $0 +11%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 13 $4 −$1 -15%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $8 +$1 +8%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Kaja Juvan Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $5 −$1 -23%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Blinkova Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $1 $0 -34%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $1 −$1 -76%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $9 $0 +4%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $1 −$1 -65%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $2 −$1 -46%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $3 −$1 -33%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7 $0 -5%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 36¢ $1 50m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan SELL Rebeka Masarova 66¢ $1 52m
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 11¢ $0 55m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan BUY Rebeka Masarova 58¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 99¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 70¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Petra Marcinko 96¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Petra Marcinko 97¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 56¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 53¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 47¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 65¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Aoi Ito 61¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Maya Joint 62¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Aoi Ito 44¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Aoi Ito 38¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 52¢ $1 2h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Aoi Ito 35¢ $1 2h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Aoi Ito 29¢ $1 2h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 77¢ $1 2h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Aoi Ito 24¢ $1 2h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 60¢ $1 2h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 65¢ $1 2h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 64¢ $1 3h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Elise Mertens 63¢ $1 3h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 51¢ $1 3h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha SELL Shuai Zhang 77¢ $1 3h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha BUY Shuai Zhang 75¢ $1 3h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha SELL Shuai Zhang 74¢ $1 3h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus SELL Sinja Kraus 23¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.92 · official $2.92 (match) · 1898 history records