Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:20:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b24…e53b sports 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$877 (+15%) realized +$927 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%66W / 103L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$919
14 days−$980
30 days−$922
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$660
other 2% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -82.1% -83.8% 7% 7% -43.2%
≤30d 115 -64.9% -68.2% 17% 17% -32.9%
≤90d 133 -48.5% -53.4% 24% 24% -22.4%
all 169 -12.4% -20.8% 39% 39% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 39% +1.1%
10% -28.3% 39% -8.6%
15% -35.3% 39% -17.4%
20% -41.6% 37% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$23 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$927
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses66 / 103
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)169 / 170
History coverage206d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 49¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $347 −$209 -60%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $9 +$15 +165%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $202 +$160 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $28 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $120 −$119 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $19 +$33 +172%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $19 +$31 +158%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $34 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $67 −$66 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $70 +$80 +114%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid (BO1) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FaZe (BO1) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FaZe (BO1) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NIP (BO3) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 (BO3) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs TYLOO (BO1) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FURIA win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Imperial (BO1) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO1) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Passion UA (BO3) Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Imperial (BO1) Jun 13 $10 −$5 -52%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Passion UA (BO3) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 27¢ $138 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 51¢ $99 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 49¢ $51 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $248 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 37¢ $9 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $28 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $202 28h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $120 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $53 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 50¢ $34 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 36¢ $19 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 38¢ $19 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $33 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $34 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 45¢ $34 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 42¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 23¢ $9 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 9¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 37¢ $30 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $70 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $768 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 57¢ $444 6d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $45 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $14 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 100¢ $44 7d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $19 7d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $61 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 43¢ $19 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 16¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 379 history records