Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4B 0x4b24…5ff6 other 53 markets active 2d ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,478 (-26%) realized −$1,985 · open −$493
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate56%29W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$249
14 days−$184
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$634
other 32% −$1,377
politics 10% −$582
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -9.5% -18.2% 60% 30% -21.0%
≤30d 17 +9.3% -1.1% 71% 53% -12.6%
≤90d 52 -13.6% -21.8% 56% 40% -30.9%
all 52 -13.6% -21.8% 56% 40% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 40% -30.9%
10% -29.3% 21% -37.5%
15% -36.1% 15% -43.5%
20% -42.4% 12% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$119 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$1,985
Unrealized−$493
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses29 / 23
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage63d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 41¢ $512 $19 −$493 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $272 −$270 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $262 +$10 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $193 +$69 +36%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -55%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $169 +$5 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $143 +$36 +26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $16 +$1 +4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $391 −$19 -5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $414 −$89 -22%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $71 +$40 +57%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $51 +$30 +60%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $10 +$4 +42%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $120 +$16 +13%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 30 $10 +$12 +115%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $114 +$77 +67%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 10 $40 −$40 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $25 +$16 +64%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 09 $10 +$14 +136%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1,282 −$1,122 -88%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $1,975 −$747 -38%
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants May 06 $1,593 +$192 +12%
Will Barcelona SC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $10 −$6 -57%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $29 −$19 -65%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $22 +$7 +30%
Santos: Santiago De La Fuente vs Franco Roncadelli May 05 $19 +$3 +17%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $17 +$2 +12%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $60 −$43 -71%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $154 −$39 -25%
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 05 $102 −$3 -3%
Will CA Tucumán win on 2026-03-08? May 03 $5 +$1 +15%
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies May 03 $33 +$4 +11%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics May 03 $90 +$2 +2%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $100 +$4 +4%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $186 −$158 -85%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 03 $125 +$7 +5%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $40 +$7 +18%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 03 $201 +$19 +10%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $49 −$48 -98%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 03 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 02 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $272 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $272 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 71¢ $262 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $193 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $100 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $175 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $169 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $179 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $79 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $17 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $64 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $126 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $16 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $17 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $43 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 11¢ $52 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 19¢ $103 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 26¢ $72 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 70¢ $173 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 40¢ $102 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $111 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 63¢ $71 9d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL Aurora 71¢ $14 10d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 49¢ $10 10d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 16¢ $10 10d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri BUY No 62¢ $51 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 41¢ $134 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 40¢ $136 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.23 · official $19.23 (match) · 138 history records