Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:22:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
4B 0x4b23…403c other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$175 (+14%) realized +$210 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$82
crypto 16% +$142
sports 11% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -33.7% -40.0% 33% 33% +7.1%
≤30d 9 -33.7% -40.0% 33% 33% +7.1%
≤90d 9 -33.7% -40.0% 33% 33% +7.1%
all 9 -33.7% -40.0% 33% 33% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.0% 33% +7.1%
10% -45.8% 33% -3.1%
15% -51.0% 33% -12.5%
20% -55.8% 33% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$41 · ×3.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized+$210
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 20¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$3 -6%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$131 +64%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$137 +67%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $48 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $51 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 4h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 26h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $92 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $308 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.34 · official $316.08 (match) · 18 history records