Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:03:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4B
0x4b23…e57c
other · 175 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses15 / 160
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)175 / 175
History coverage220d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 0 History 175 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keenan Hayes win Bareback Riding at The American Rodeo 2026 Championship Weekend? Yes 95¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $8.00 on June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
GMGN FDV above $4B one day after launch Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw Jun 06 $2 $0 -1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -1%
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -0%
Will Luis Carlos Heinze win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election Jun 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -1%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $1 $0 -1%
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 -0%
Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead May 30 $1 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? May 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele May 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by May 31, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele May 27 $1 $0 -2%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 25 $1 $0 -9%
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? May 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? May 23 $2 $0 -1%
Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? May 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 80k? May 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Latvia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 19 $1 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be less May 18 $1 $0 -0%
Over $1B crypto hack value in 2026? May 16 $2 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? May 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 13 $2 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Keenan Hayes win Bareback Riding at The American Rodeo 2026 Champ May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Betmoar FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 09 $1 $0 -19%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will paiN Gaming win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 08 $1 $0 -1%
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 07 $1 $0 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? May 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 06 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% −$5
tech 19% −$3
world 17% $0
politics 15% −$1
finance 5% $0
crypto 5% −$1
sports 3% −$2
culture 1% $0
weather 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $8.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 53m
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 53m
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $8.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 23h
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 23h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 24h
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 24h
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 47h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 47h
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 2d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
GMGN FDV above $4B one day after launch SELL No 98¢ $1 2d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
GMGN FDV above $4B one day after launch BUY No 98¢ $1 3d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 98¢ $1 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 4d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 5d
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 5d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 5d
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 5d
Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw SELL No 99¢ $1 7d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $1 7d
Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1 7d
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.8% -11.1% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 38 -1.4% -10.8% 3% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 114 -7.0% -15.8% 11% 2% -14.3%
all 175 -5.9% -14.9% 9% 1% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 1% -13.7%
10% -23.0% 0% -22.0%
15% -30.4% 0% -29.5%
20% -37.3% 0% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 578 history records