Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:54:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4B 0x4b22…9431 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$436 (+22%) realized +$437 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$398
7 days+$601
14 days+$601
30 days+$451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$318
other 7% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +34.1% +21.3% 71% 71% +24.0%
≤30d 16 +17.3% +6.1% 62% 62% +13.5%
≤90d 16 +17.3% +6.1% 62% 62% +13.5%
all 21 -1.6% -11.0% 52% 52% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 52% +11.3%
10% -19.5% 52% +0.6%
15% -27.3% 52% -9.1%
20% -34.4% 52% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$62 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$437
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage138d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 51¢ 50¢ $109 $108 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $143 +$100 +70%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $128 −$126 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5) Jun 26 $104 +$100 +97%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $133 +$101 +76%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $133 +$101 +76%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $102 +$121 +119%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $139 +$102 +73%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $105 −$104 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $102 +$103 +101%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $139 +$130 +93%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $102 +$103 +101%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Rockets vs. Magic: O/U 215.5 Feb 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Feb 26 $11 +$9 +89%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5 Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-13.5) Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5 Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 51¢ $111 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $143 23h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $128 24h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 56¢ $133 47h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 50¢ $104 47h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $133 2d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 45¢ $102 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $139 2d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 51¢ $105 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 49¢ $102 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $102 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 51¢ $139 4d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $102 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $172 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 58¢ $101 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $51 18d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 20d
Rockets vs. Magic: O/U 215.5 BUY Under 53¢ $11 120d
Cavaliers vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 121d
Spread: Rockets (-13.5) BUY Jazz 52¢ $10 123d
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) BUY Bulls 53¢ $11 125d
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.07 · official $108.07 (match) · 33 history records