Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:14:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4B 0x4b21…bfa3 other 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$954 (-2%) realized −$968 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate85%130W / 23L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$1,014now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$305
14 days−$388
30 days−$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$275
world 12% −$488
politics 7% −$810
finance 3% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -15.7% -23.7% 70% 10% -14.2%
≤30d 27 -3.9% -13.0% 81% 19% -11.5%
≤90d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 91% 11% -9.1%
all 153 -2.0% -11.4% 85% 10% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 10% -11.2%
10% -19.9% 6% -19.7%
15% -27.6% 3% -27.4%
20% -34.7% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$501) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$106 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$1,014
Realized−$968
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses130 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 155
History coverage176d
Avg bet$366
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,000 $1,014 +$14 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,001 +$14 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1,000 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $900 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $800 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $200 +$8 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $101 +$35 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $761 +$15 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,000 −$270 -27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 13 $102 −$75 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $600 +$9 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 12 $363 −$112 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $360 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $201 +$10 +5%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $20 +$5 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $417 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,401 +$10 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $1,045 +$8 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $200 +$35 +18%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 01 $1,002 +$37 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $602 +$62 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 29 $402 +$66 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $200 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 25 $162 +$52 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $390 +$8 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $600 −$207 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $700 +$7 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $301 +$13 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $400 +$10 +2%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $401 +$20 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $701 +$12 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $691 +$10 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $660 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $602 +$31 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $630 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 10 $600 +$8 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $300 +$8 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $310 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 07 $600 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $501 +$20 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $501 +$14 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $560 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $7 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $551 +$10 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $550 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $542 +$11 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $300 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $230 +$7 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,001 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 25h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $900 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $50 5d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $800 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $200 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND W BUY 28¢ $15 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $127 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL No 17¢ $27 6d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $761 7d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $101 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL No 54¢ $252 7d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $600 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $603 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 76¢ $363 10d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $363 10d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $360 11d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $300 11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 61¢ $102 12d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $201 14d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 95¢ $25 14d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $417 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1,000 17d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,411 17d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 77¢ $20 17d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,401 18d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,054 18d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $900 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $235 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,014.08 · official $1,014.08 (match) · 335 history records