Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:15:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b1f…535e crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$24 (-59%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$25
crypto 33% −$4
weather 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -26.0% -33.0% 43% 43% -73.4%
≤30d 14 -26.0% -33.0% 43% 43% -73.4%
≤90d 14 -26.0% -33.0% 43% 43% -73.4%
all 14 -26.0% -33.0% 43% 43% -73.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 43% -73.4%
10% -39.4% 29% -75.9%
15% -45.3% 21% -78.3%
20% -50.7% 21% -80.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +159%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +72%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records