Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:13:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b1c…f9a7 crypto 148 markets active 19h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$37 (+1%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate28%41W / 107L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days+$57
14 days+$57
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -28.5% -35.3% 27% 20% -7.7%
≤30d 94 -28.5% -35.3% 27% 20% -7.7%
≤90d 94 -28.5% -35.3% 27% 20% -7.7%
all 148 -17.1% -25.0% 28% 23% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 23% -9.0%
10% -32.2% 22% -17.7%
15% -38.8% 20% -25.7%
20% -44.8% 20% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses41 / 107
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
History coverage153d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions (98 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$6 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$7 +309%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$9 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$13 +627%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$7 +693%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$6 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $98 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $18 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $6 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 259 history records