Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:20:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4B 0x4b1c…8273 sports 232 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$853 (+2%) realized +$837 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%132W / 99L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$427est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$1,106
14 days−$542
30 days+$530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$541
crypto 1% +$19
other 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -10.5% -19.1% 55% 42% -4.0%
≤30d 231 -0.9% -10.4% 57% 48% -8.5%
≤90d 231 -0.9% -10.4% 57% 48% -8.5%
all 231 -0.9% -10.4% 57% 48% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 48% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 37% -17.2%
15% -26.8% 26% -25.2%
20% -34.0% 19% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$104 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$837
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses132 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$427
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage22d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 92¢ 100¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $496 +$62 +12%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,203 +$97 +8%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $601 +$51 +8%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$13 -63%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $203 +$148 +73%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $205 +$54 +26%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$91 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$48 -47%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $302 +$91 +30%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $403 +$11 +3%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $102 −$75 -74%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$19 -19%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $201 +$16 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $405 −$405 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$59 +30%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $406 +$402 +99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$85 -84%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $302 +$109 +36%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $20 +$26 +128%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$53 +103%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$18 +9%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$12 +40%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $402 +$72 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $101 +$42 +41%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$130 +255%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$24 -24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $706 +$246 +35%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $904 +$130 +14%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $413 +$223 +54%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 92¢ $200 32m
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $558 45m
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $496 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $1,300 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 95¢ $601 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $653 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $201 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $401 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $401 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 88¢ $201 3h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 6h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 7h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY LOS 57¢ $203 15h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $101 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 15¢ $54 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 27¢ $102 15h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 84¢ $3 15h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 79¢ $201 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 9¢ $10 16h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner SELL Solary 100¢ $393 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 82¢ $414 16h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 61¢ $101 16h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 62¢ $101 16h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 86¢ $201 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 79¢ $403 16h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Team Heretics 10¢ $27 16h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 36¢ $102 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 17¢ $83 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $102 17h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 36¢ $102 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.30 · official $216.30 (match) · 558 history records