Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:26:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b1b…62c1 sports 371 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,885 (-2%) realized −$1,695 · open −$190
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate82%292W / 63L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$3,742now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$121
14 days+$330
30 days−$661
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$1,607
other 32% +$1,899
tech 4% −$503
politics 4% −$1,314
world 2% −$23
crypto 2% −$465
culture 1% +$22
finance 1% +$2
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +19.7% +8.3% 100% 33% +11.3%
≤30d 18 +19.6% +8.2% 89% 56% -22.9%
≤90d 76 +25.9% +13.9% 80% 33% -14.4%
all 355 +3.9% -6.0% 82% 19% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 19% -11.3%
10% -15.0% 10% -19.8%
15% -23.2% 6% -27.6%
20% -30.8% 5% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$178 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$3,742
Realized−$1,695
Unrealized−$190
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses292 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions15
Markets (closed)355 / 371
History coverage535d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $624 $634 +$10 (+2%)
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? No 82¢ 84¢ $571 $590 +$19 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $538 $575 +$37 (+7%)
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $409 $496 +$87 (+21%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 36¢ 26¢ $450 $329 −$121 (-27%)
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? No 66¢ 32¢ $591 $283 −$307 (-52%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 71¢ $173 $194 +$21 (+12%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 88¢ $170 $175 +$5 (+3%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 51¢ 76¢ $102 $151 +$49 (+48%)
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B? No 80¢ 78¢ $147 $144 −$3 (-2%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $46 $49 +$3 (+6%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 78¢ 99¢ $36 $46 +$10 (+27%)
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $24B? No 81¢ 82¢ $37 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $28B? No 93¢ 94¢ $35 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 88¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? Jun 22 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $286 +$27 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $194 +$93 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $174 +$46 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $153 +$42 +27%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $127 +$24 +19%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $60 +$65 +109%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $43 +$12 +29%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $20 +$19 +96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $1,028 −$1,018 -99%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.25T and 1.50T? Jun 03 $448 +$44 +10%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $399 −$257 -64%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $981 +$169 +17%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 29 $18 $0 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $304 +$26 +9%
Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by June 30, 2026? May 28 $98 +$18 +18%
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 28 $14 +$15 +109%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? May 26 $187 +$11 +6%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 19 $338 +$193 +57%
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026? May 19 $1,179 +$86 +7%
Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by December 31, 2026 May 12 $95 +$3 +3%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $285 −$285 -100%
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 May 06 $618 −$616 -100%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close o May 04 $103 +$5 +5%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $350 +$25 +7%
Will Anthropic have the second highest estimated revenue for May 4–May May 03 $97 +$51 +53%
Will Google have the second highest estimated revenue for May 4–May 10 May 03 $4 −$3 -82%
Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for May 4–May 10 May 03 $25 +$23 +95%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $1,529 +$481 +32%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 30 $94 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? Apr 30 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Google reach $355 in April? Apr 29 $19 −$19 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 29 $126 +$48 +38%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $88 −$88 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $130 +$10 +8%
NBA Playoffs: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Total Games O/U 5.5 Apr 28 $160 +$40 +25%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO Apr 28 $1,411 +$207 +15%
Spread: Rockets (-8.5) Apr 25 $180 +$20 +11%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $2,352 −$2,352 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 20 $2,030 −$210 -10%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 20 $293 −$93 -32%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $1,730 +$60 +4%
Spread: Celtics (-12.5) Apr 19 $250 −$179 -71%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $760 +$20 +3%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Apr 19 $910 +$90 +10%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5 Apr 19 $910 +$90 +10%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $1,260 +$220 +18%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Apr 19 $134 +$20 +15%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 18 $800 +$50 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $539 1h
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 72¢ $17 9h
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 72¢ $36 11h
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 72¢ $36 12h
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 72¢ $91 12h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $47 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 91¢ $286 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $194 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $51 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 78¢ $174 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $153 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 77¢ $151 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $127 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $60 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 77¢ $43 11d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 13d
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 72¢ $7 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $1,028 16d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $102 17d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $48 18d
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.25T and 1.50T? SELL No 99¢ $100 19d
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B? BUY No 75¢ $4 20d
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 72¢ $72 21d
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 72¢ $23 21d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 21d
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the BUY Yes 71¢ $7 21d
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the BUY Yes 71¢ $215 21d
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the BUY Yes 71¢ $14 21d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY No 29¢ $3 21d
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 69¢ $4 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,742.32 · official $3,741.15 (match) · 2001 history records