Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4B 0x4b1a…d790 sports 712 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 139d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,150 (-1%) realized +$514 · open −$1,664
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%319W / 387L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$504est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$4,908now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 140d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$1,719
sports 30% −$2,869
other 9% +$985
crypto 3% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +10.1% -0.3% 67% 67% -7.8%
≤30d 124 -10.7% -19.2% 44% 43% -15.8%
≤90d 463 -7.0% -15.9% 45% 45% -10.2%
all 706 -5.7% -14.7% 45% 38% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 38% -11.1%
10% -22.9% 35% -19.6%
15% -30.3% 31% -27.3%
20% -37.1% 28% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$68 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$4,908
Realized+$514
Unrealized−$1,664
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses319 / 387
Est. fees paid−$504
Open positions6
Markets (closed)706 / 712
History coverage140d ⚠
Avg bet$209
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 706 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 92¢ $2,000 $3,660 +$1,660 (+83%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ $2,000 $340 −$1,660 (-83%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $312 $314 +$2 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 72¢ 70¢ $241 $236 −$5 (-2%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 63¢ 62¢ $161 $159 −$1 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 54¢ 55¢ $113 $114 +$1 (+1%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 47¢ 46¢ $85 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $169 +$101 +60%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $334 +$86 +26%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $473 +$87 +18%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $276 +$89 +32%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $92 −$91 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $55 +$95 +172%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $268 −$266 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $160 −$158 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $114 +$95 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $94 +$95 +101%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $84 −$82 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $192 −$97 -51%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $85 −$83 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $115 +$95 +83%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $501 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $117 −$116 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $98 +$95 +97%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $83 +$4 +5%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 05 $122 −$120 -99%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Seri Jun 05 $53 −$52 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $76 −$75 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $70 +$98 +140%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $132 −$130 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $54 −$53 -98%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $125 +$95 +76%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $162 +$93 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $97 −$96 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $64 −$63 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 01 $139 +$94 +67%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Galorys (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Playoff Jun 01 $67 +$101 +152%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $86 +$94 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $68 +$95 +140%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $68 +$80 +119%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 01 $75 −$75 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $78 +$100 +129%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $85 +$98 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $187 −$187 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $233 +$97 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $184 +$96 +52%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $64 +$94 +146%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $160 +$95 +60%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - European Pro League Seri May 30 $67 +$101 +152%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $129 +$95 +73%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $149 +$96 +65%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $85 −$85 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs May 29 $58 +$107 +182%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 63¢ $162 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $67 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $19 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $115 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $243 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $314 9h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $334 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $473 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $92 3d
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 62¢ $169 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $268 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $276 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $55 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $160 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $114 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 46¢ $84 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 49¢ $94 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $97 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $85 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $500 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $115 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $117 8d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 49¢ $91 8d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $95 8d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Boston Red Sox 50¢ $88 10d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Boston Red Sox 46¢ $83 10d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $98 10d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers BUY Cleveland Guardians 55¢ $122 12d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Seri BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 34¢ $53 12d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 22¢ $21 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,908.20 · official $4,908.20 (match) · 3500 history records