Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b1a…0324 politics 73 markets active 7d ago coverage 348d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%11W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$5
other 31% −$5
sports 18% −$2
culture 6% $0
world 6% +$1
tech 3% $0
economics 3% +$2
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
all 73 -5.2% -14.2% 15% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

348d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses11 / 62
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage348d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $102 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $101 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 07 $101 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $203 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 08 $4 $0 -4%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 07 $96 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $101 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 29 $99 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 27? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $104 −$1 -1%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 23 $207 $0 -0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $104 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 17 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $101 $0 +0%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 03 $104 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 01 $103 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 29 $3 $0 -12%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $104 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 26 $103 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $105 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $106 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $1 $0 -17%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $2 $0 -17%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $1 $0 -50%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $106 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 06 $212 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 02 $103 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 26 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 24 $108 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 23 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 21 $430 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $108 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 10 $211 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $110 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $108 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 02 $213 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 20 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $219 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 12 $103 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $102 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $102 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $101 14d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 107d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $101 117d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $101 128d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 128d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 130d
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $96 132d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 132d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 136d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 137d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $99 139d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $99 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 142d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $101 142d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $101 143d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $100 144d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $100 145d
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? BUY No 100¢ $104 148d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $104 149d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $105 150d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $99 151d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $99 152d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 153d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 154d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 155d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $100 155d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $100 156d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 289 history records