Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4B 0x4b18…fdbe other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$160 (+12%) realized +$160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +20.3% +8.9% 67% 67% -0.5%
≤30d 3 +20.3% +8.9% 67% 67% -0.5%
≤90d 4 +17.2% +6.1% 75% 50% -1.1%
all 4 +17.2% +6.1% 75% 50% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 50% -1.1%
10% -4.1% 25% -10.6%
15% -13.4% 25% -19.2%
20% -21.9% 25% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$50 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.4 per $1 lost it wins $3.4
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage52d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $234 +$29 +12%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $466 −$50 -11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $183 +$109 +59%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $400 +$31 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $263 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 26h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $233 26h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $234 26h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $290 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $292 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $183 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $182 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $173 18d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $432 42d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $400 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records