Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4B 0x4b14…8d5e other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$111 (+18%) realized +$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$82
sports 42% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +13.2% +2.4% 31% 23% +7.9%
≤30d 13 +13.2% +2.4% 31% 23% +7.9%
≤90d 13 +13.2% +2.4% 31% 23% +7.9%
all 13 +13.2% +2.4% 31% 23% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.4% 23% +7.9%
10% ← realistic here -7.4% 23% -2.5%
15% -16.3% 23% -11.9%
20% -24.5% 15% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$11 · ×4.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $60 +$23 +37%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? Jun 29 $182 +$18 +10%
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Jun 29 $153 −$12 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $56 −$19 -34%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 29 $48 −$31 -65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $36 +$130 +363%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 −$6 -56%
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 29 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $30 −$4 -12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $11 +$35 +315%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 76¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 71¢ $40 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? SELL Yes 89¢ $125 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 77¢ $81 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? SELL Yes 63¢ $74 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 1h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? SELL Yes 8¢ $77 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 42¢ $23 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 3h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 3h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 3h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 41¢ $15 3h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 3h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes 9¢ $87 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 97¢ $166 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 5h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? SELL Yes 8¢ $17 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.65 · official $82.65 (match) · 51 history records