Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:48:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4B 0x4b12…38bf sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized −$39 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$803now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$373
7 days−$6
14 days+$72
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$147
sports 33% −$24
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -14.5% -22.6% 44% 44% -9.7%
≤30d 32 -3.1% -12.4% 47% 47% -7.4%
≤90d 32 -3.1% -12.4% 47% 47% -7.4%
all 32 -3.1% -12.4% 47% 47% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 47% -7.4%
10% -20.7% 47% -16.3%
15% -28.4% 44% -24.4%
20% -35.4% 34% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$57 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$803
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 43
History coverage25d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $300 $342 +$42 (+14%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $100 $142 +$42 (+42%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $606 −$280 -46%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $307 −$80 -26%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$13 +65%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 +$87 +86%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$99 +49%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$47 +92%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $233 +$204 +88%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $36 +$8 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $59 +$91 +155%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $203 +$135 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $217 +$83 +38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $121 +$70 +58%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$120 +59%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +203%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$39 +39%
Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs. Luca Van Assche: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$32 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$10 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $244 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $227 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 36¢ $326 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $61 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $606 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $51 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $301 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $97 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18 BUY 4¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $438 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $233 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $44 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $36 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 2¢ $4 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? AND Will Portugal vs. DR C BUY 1¢ $4 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $153 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 96¢ $52 4d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 96¢ $100 4d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 96¢ $100 4d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 96¢ $7 4d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 96¢ $78 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $802.65 · official $802.74 (match) · 105 history records