Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4B 0x4b0f…3c8e sports 304 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$478 (+2%) realized +$479 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate75%219W / 74L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$207est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$623now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days−$85
14 days−$79
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$345
world 15% −$262
finance 6% +$3
politics 6% +$199
other 5% +$29
crypto 1% +$12
weather 1% −$23
tech 1% +$11
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.9% -14.9% 75% 25% -18.4%
≤30d 16 -12.2% -20.5% 75% 19% -21.3%
≤90d 293 +2.4% -7.4% 75% 33% -8.2%
all 293 +2.4% -7.4% 75% 33% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 33% -8.2%
10% -16.2% 19% -17.0%
15% -24.3% 12% -25.0%
20% -31.7% 8% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$19 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$623
Realized+$479
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses219 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$207
Open positions11
Markets (closed)293 / 304
History coverage87d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 86¢ $311 $346 +$35 (+11%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 85¢ $183 $170 −$13 (-7%)
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? No 90¢ 84¢ $54 $51 −$3 (-6%)
Brex IPO before 2027? No 94¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 62¢ 26¢ $23 $9 −$13 (-59%)
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? No 62¢ 57¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-8%)
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? Yes 58¢ 18¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 77¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $410 +$6 +2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$82 -81%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 17 $179 −$29 -16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $17 +$2 +14%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $86 +$14 +16%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $17 +$2 +9%
Will SpaceX list on an exchange other than the NASDAQ or NYSE? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 05 $48 +$2 +4%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 05 $96 +$4 +4%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $150 +$12 +8%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 22 $243 −$243 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 22 $25 $0 +2%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $80 +$20 +25%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $633 +$60 +10%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 18 $48 +$3 +7%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 May 17 $13 +$2 +14%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 17 $104 +$19 +18%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $542 +$36 +7%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $188 +$12 +6%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 May 15 $225 +$25 +11%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $504 +$117 +23%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 10.5 May 15 $192 +$43 +23%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 15 $27 −$13 -50%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $186 +$14 +8%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $443 −$131 -30%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 12 $58 +$10 +17%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 May 11 $61 +$19 +32%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $318 +$201 +63%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 May 11 $120 +$10 +9%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 11 $37 −$37 -99%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) May 11 $13 −$13 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 11 $206 −$203 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 May 11 $145 +$10 +7%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 09 $51 +$4 +8%
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 09 $164 +$9 +6%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5 May 09 $557 +$53 +10%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 09 $123 −$110 -90%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 May 08 $9 +$1 +10%
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies May 07 $9 +$1 +8%
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 May 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 07 $261 +$24 +9%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 07 $22 +$2 +8%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5 May 07 $47 +$3 +6%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 May 07 $28 −$3 -11%
Jiujiang: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Jiajing Lu May 05 $8 +$2 +18%
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5 May 04 $143 +$7 +5%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 04 $383 +$28 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $150 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $49 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $27 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $23 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $44 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $17 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $179 12h
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 94¢ $15 17d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 94¢ $16 17d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 94¢ $64 17d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $4 17d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 45¢ $3 17d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL Chicago Cubs 59¢ $58 17d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Chicago Cubs 52¢ $53 17d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $1 26d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $1 26d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Canadiens 98¢ $5 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $623.44 · official $623.84 (match) · 1311 history records