Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:33:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b0c…c8ad sports 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$638 (-6%) realized −$633 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%47W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days−$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$678
other 26% +$96
crypto 7% −$87
culture 5% −$204
world 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +101.0% +81.9% 75% 75% +63.8%
≤30d 23 -5.8% -14.8% 35% 35% -20.1%
≤90d 125 -15.0% -23.1% 38% 33% -17.0%
all 125 -15.0% -23.1% 38% 33% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 33% -17.0%
10% -30.5% 30% -25.0%
15% -37.2% 25% -32.2%
20% -43.3% 22% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$36 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$633
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses47 / 78
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions3
Markets (closed)125 / 129
History coverage92d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 75¢ 98¢ $23 $30 +$7 (+30%)
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes $3 $14 +$11 (+317%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 22¢ $35 $12 −$22 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $39 −$38 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $25 +$90 +365%
Will Chicago Bulls win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +89%
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +50%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 26 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 26 $15 +$10 +64%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $92 −$17 -18%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $199 −$14 -7%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 24 $82 −$81 -99%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5 May 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 24 $30 −$10 -32%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 21 $46 +$56 +122%
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm May 21 $89 +$11 +12%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $59 +$52 +89%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner May 21 $11 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $206 −$93 -45%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $72 −$25 -35%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $190 −$8 -4%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 20 $139 +$29 +21%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 19 $34 +$30 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $47 −$17 -37%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $210 +$15 +7%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $61 −$8 -14%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 18 $35 −$28 -82%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner May 18 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Maryville University vs Supernova - Game 2 Winner May 18 $99 −$46 -46%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 18 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 18 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 18 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 18 $100 −$53 -53%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 2 Winner May 18 $67 −$66 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $258 +$318 +123%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 17 $72 −$53 -73%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 17 $110 +$52 +48%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $150 +$109 +73%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 16 $184 −$5 -2%
Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for May 14 $15 −$15 -96%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 14 $75 +$44 +58%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 14 $23 +$9 +40%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 14 $37 +$43 +118%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 14 $20 −$13 -62%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $53 +$17 +32%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $132 −$104 -78%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 13 $23 −$18 -79%
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? May 13 $256 −$26 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 75¢ $23 15m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 23¢ $24 15m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 56¢ $59 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $39 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Croatia: Both Te BUY 28¢ $68 34h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $25 3d
Will Chicago Bulls win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $6 3d
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 23d
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 23d
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 23d
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 23d
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 23d
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 23d
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers SELL Knicks 50¢ $49 24d
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 51¢ $51 24d
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 17¢ $36 25d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 38¢ $75 25d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $17 25d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 25d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $56 25d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $99 25d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 54¢ $82 25d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In SELL Ninjas in Pyjamas 27¢ $37 25d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In SELL Ninjas in Pyjamas 27¢ $4 25d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In SELL Ninjas in Pyjamas 27¢ $30 25d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In SELL Ninjas in Pyjamas 27¢ $2 25d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In SELL Ninjas in Pyjamas 27¢ $8 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.04 · official $56.04 (match) · 464 history records