Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4B 0x4b0c…7a20 other 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$73 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate92%73W / 6L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$30
14 days+$28
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$21
world 19% +$2
politics 5% −$1
sports 5% $0
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +1.9% -7.8% 95% 1% -8.1%
≤30d 79 +0.9% -8.7% 92% 3% -8.4%
≤90d 79 +0.9% -8.7% 92% 3% -8.4%
all 79 +0.9% -8.7% 92% 3% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -8.4%
10% -17.5% 1% -17.2%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.01 per $1 lost it wins $3.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses73 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)79 / 97
History coverage25d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals No 98¢ 96¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Nico Williams: 3+ goals No 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Mahmoud Saber: 2+ assists No 96¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Pedri: 3+ goals No 97¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Alex Baena: 3+ goals No 98¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists No 96¢ 91¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Nico Williams: 2+ assists No 97¢ 90¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Garry Rodrigues: 2+ assists No 98¢ 83¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Thomas Meunier: 2+ goals No 98¢ 65¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Hélio Varela: 2+ assists No 98¢ 56¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-43%)
Omar Marmoush: 2+ assists No 94¢ 52¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Mikel Merino: 2+ assists No 97¢ 54¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Ibrahim Adel: 2+ assists No 96¢ 54¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-45%)
Haissem Hassan: 2+ assists No 96¢ 54¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-45%)
Willy Semedo: 2+ assists No 98¢ 54¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-45%)
Mostafa Zico: 2+ assists No 96¢ 53¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-45%)
Nuno Jóia: 4+ shots No 97¢ 53¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-45%)
Martín Zubimendi: 2+ assists No 96¢ 54¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Isak Hien: 2+ assists Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Lucas Bergvall: 2+ assists Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Elias Saad: 5+ shots Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Ismaël Gharbi: 2+ assists Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Rani Khedira: 2+ assists Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Rayan Elloumi: 5+ shots Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Hannibal Mejbri: 2+ assists Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Elias Achouri: 2+ assists Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Mortadha Ben Ouanes: 2+ assists Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Rayan Elloumi: 3+ goals Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Elias Achouri: 2+ goals Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ismaël Gharbi: 3+ goals Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Elias Saad: 3+ goals Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Alexander Isak: 3+ goals Jun 15 $45 +$1 +2%
Ghislain Konan: 2+ assists Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Evann Guessand: 3+ goals Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Simon Adingra: 3+ goals Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Nicolas Pépé: 2+ goals Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Kendry Páez: 3+ goals Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Pedro Vite: 2+ goals Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 15 $6 $0 -1%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -11%
Hiroki Itō: 2+ assists Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ assists Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Koki Ogawa: 3+ goals Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Kento Shiogai: 3+ goals Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Keisuke Gotō: 3+ goals Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Gervane Kastaneer: 2+ assists Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Jeremy Antonisse: 2+ assists Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Juninho Bacuna: 2+ assists Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Jearl Margaritha: 2+ assists Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Kenji Gorré: 2+ assists Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Brandley Kuwas: 2+ assists Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Sontje Hansen: 2+ assists Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Tyrese Noslin: 2+ assists Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Leroy Sané: 3+ goals Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Jürgen Locadia: 2+ assists Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 14 $120 −$1 -0%
Mo Touré: 2+ assists Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Salih Özcan: 2+ goals Jun 14 $60 +$1 +2%
Zeki Çelik: 2+ assists Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Tete Yengi: 2+ goals Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Tete Yengi: 3+ goals Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
İsmail Yüksek: 2+ goals Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Nestory Irankunda: 3+ goals Jun 14 $66 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haissem Hassan: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Ibrahim Adel: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Mahmoud Saber: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Mostafa Zico: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Omar Marmoush: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Thomas Meunier: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Nuno Jóia: 4+ shots BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Garry Rodrigues: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Hélio Varela: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Martín Zubimendi: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $8 1h
Mikel Merino: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Nico Williams: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Willy Semedo: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Alex Baena: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Nico Williams: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Pedri: 3+ goals BUY No 97¢ $10 2h
Rayan Elloumi: 5+ shots BUY No 98¢ $5 7h
Elias Saad: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $20 7h
Rayan Elloumi: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $30 7h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $6 8h
China x Japan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $10 8h
Elias Saad: 5+ shots BUY No 98¢ $20 8h
Rayan Elloumi: 5+ shots BUY No 98¢ $20 9h
Lucas Bergvall: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $20 9h
Mortadha Ben Ouanes: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $20 9h
Rani Khedira: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $20 9h
Ismaël Gharbi: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $20 10h
Isak Hien: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $20 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.53 · official $146.54 (match) · 214 history records