Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:43:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4B 0x4b0c…79b5 crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%11W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$667now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 27% +$1
tech 23% +$1
world 18% +$1
sports 13% +$2
politics 7% +$1
finance 7% $0
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 11 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$667
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses11 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage65d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $244 $243 −$0 (-0%)
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $232 $232 −$0 (-0%)
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $192 $192 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $664 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 17? Jun 17 $293 $0 +0%
Will Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Nation Jun 14 $287 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 13? Jun 13 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $288 $0 +0%
Will Yuri Fulmer win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia l Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in May? Jun 02 $264 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 02 $335 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? May 25 $663 +$1 +0%
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? May 18 $663 +$1 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $662 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $666.90 · official $666.90 (match) · 25 history records