Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:12:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b03…b766 sports 853 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$369 (-1%) realized −$365 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%382W / 461L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$29
14 days−$91
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$184
crypto 20% −$15
sports 14% −$385
politics 5% −$97
culture 1% −$95
world 0% +$11
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +5.2% -4.8% 58% 50% -6.6%
≤30d 33 -10.6% -19.1% 42% 33% -11.3%
≤90d 426 -40.2% -45.9% 28% 27% -34.1%
all 843 -7.2% -16.0% 45% 38% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 38% -10.5%
10% -24.1% 34% -19.1%
15% -31.4% 27% -26.9%
20% -38.1% 21% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$365
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses382 / 461
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions4
Markets (closed)843 / 853
History coverage147d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 843 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No 79¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $35 +$7 +21%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 26 $3 −$1 -19%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $335 −$19 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $319 +$16 +5%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $35 −$3 -10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$5 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $68 −$7 -10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $33 +$4 +12%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 +$12 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $34 +$10 +30%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $85 −$1 -1%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$10 +26%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 +$3 +10%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 17 $31 −$26 -83%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $55 +$10 +18%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$7 +13%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -18%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $47 +$32 +69%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $46 −$1 -2%
Besiktas vs. Galatasaray May 30 $33 +$12 +36%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $73 +$36 +50%
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos May 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $67 +$47 +70%
Panathinaikos vs. Valencia May 08 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $128 +$167 +131%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? Apr 26 $52 −$17 -32%
Panathinaikos vs. Monaco Apr 21 $40 +$10 +24%
Samsunspor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $12 −$2 -14%
Samsunspor vs. Beşiktaş JK: Both Teams to Score Apr 19 $4 −$1 -27%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $8 $0 -1%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 19 $30 −$1 -2%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: Both Teams to Score Apr 19 $10 $0 -3%
Coventry City FC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-04-12? Apr 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sønderjyske Fodbold win on 2026-04-12? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-04-09? Apr 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $101 11m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 35m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 87¢ $43 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $35 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 6h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? AND Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY 1¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 10h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND BUY 31¢ $5 10h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 88¢ $316 21h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $335 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $334 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 94¢ $319 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06- BUY 74¢ $36 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 69¢ $32 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $35 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $35 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $30 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $31 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 71¢ $31 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $37 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $37 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $33 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY 64¢ $21 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY 14¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.31 · official $114.13 · 2881 history records