Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4B 0x4b03…bf65 politics 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$5
other 25% −$3
world 10% −$1
finance 9% −$2
economics 9% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$838) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage86d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrey Rublev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 23 $1,296 −$2 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,239 −$2 -0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 23 $1,170 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Apr 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local electi Apr 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont Apr 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Apr 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos Apr 16 $814 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? Apr 15 $75 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $843 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 15 $813 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 14 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Apr 08 $129 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in April 2026? Apr 03 $152 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Mar 29 $143 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? Mar 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $54 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrey Rublev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $1,275 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Andrey Rublev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,260 2h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 2h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,237 2h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 2h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,209 2h
Will Andrey Rublev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $18 2h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $867 2h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $301 2h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 2h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $1,170 3h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $47 65d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 65d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 99¢ $34 65d
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local electi SELL No 100¢ $10 65d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 65d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 99¢ $13 65d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $19 65d
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local electi SELL No 100¢ $12 65d
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local electi BUY No 100¢ $22 65d
Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont SELL No 100¢ $57 68d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $841 68d
Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont BUY No 100¢ $12 68d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $803 68d
Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont BUY No 100¢ $26 68d
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election? SELL No 100¢ $34 68d
Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont BUY No 100¢ $18 68d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $14 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records