Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4B 0x4b00…1f9b crypto 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$156 (+4%) realized +$156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate74%29W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days+$108
14 days+$108
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$144
other 4% +$22
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +6.0% -4.1% 76% 45% -3.5%
≤30d 33 +6.0% -4.1% 76% 45% -3.5%
≤90d 39 +2.3% -7.4% 74% 46% -11.9%
all 39 +2.3% -7.4% 74% 46% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 46% -11.9%
10% -16.3% 38% -20.4%
15% -24.4% 21% -28.1%
20% -31.8% 18% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$82 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses29 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage71d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $152 −$122 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$51 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$35 +74%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$74 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$37 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $126 −$99 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$2 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $113 +$26 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $105 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $77 −$18 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $98 +$54 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$45 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$21 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $157 +$39 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $103 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $53 +$42 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $77 +$48 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $83 +$28 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 15 $418 −$418 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 09 $394 +$25 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 09 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 09 $311 +$75 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 09 $231 +$80 +35%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $27 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $37 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 43m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $48 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $78 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $113 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records