Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4B 0x4b00…795f crypto 970 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$374 (-1%) realized −$374 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%580W / 390L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days+$12
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$720
sports 4% +$11
other 0% +$6
world 0% +$16
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 +1.5% -8.2% 59% 57% -8.7%
≤30d 157 +6.0% -4.1% 61% 59% -6.3%
≤90d 807 -0.9% -10.3% 59% 50% -12.9%
all 970 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 51% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 51% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 45% -20.4%
15% -26.1% 37% -28.1%
20% -33.3% 30% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$374
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses580 / 390
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)970 / 970
History coverage99d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 970 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$47 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$25 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$34 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$9 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$11 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$16 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $60 +$39 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$36 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $48 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $19 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $12 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $38 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $13 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $15 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $11 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $7 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2736 history records