Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:04:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4A 0x4afb…ed2b sports 329 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,509 (-3%) realized −$7,509 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%127W / 201L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$840per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Fees−$2,300est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 96d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$14,240
other 37% −$3,343
world 2% +$489
crypto 2% +$195
politics 0% −$46
economics 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +26.0% +14.0% 43% 43% -6.2%
≤30d 81 +28.4% +16.1% 40% 37% -17.5%
≤90d 280 +9.2% -1.2% 39% 37% -15.1%
all 328 +9.4% -1.0% 39% 37% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.0% 37% -15.1%
10% -10.5% 35% -23.2%
15% ← realistic here -19.1% 35% -30.6%
20% -27.1% 33% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,140) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,114 vs −$792 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$7,509
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses127 / 201
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$2,300
Open positions1
Markets (closed)328 / 329
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$840
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $1,170 +$1,827 +156%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,230 +$1,770 +144%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $1,650 −$1,650 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,048 −$2,048 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,897 −$2,897 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,279 +$2,021 +89%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $900 +$210 +23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3,543 −$3,543 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,950 −$1,950 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,410 +$1,590 +113%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,340 −$2,340 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $876 −$876 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,350 +$2,648 +113%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,850 −$1,850 -100%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,200 +$3,798 +316%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,038 −$2,038 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,364 −$2,350 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,250 +$2,750 +122%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,600 +$3,400 +212%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,900 +$3,095 +163%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $257 +$2,241 +873%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus Jun 15 $829 −$814 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,660 +$2,340 +64%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,455 −$2,418 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,411 +$3,092 +91%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $964 −$964 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,001 −$45 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,050 +$2,950 +144%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,955 −$1,955 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $720 +$3,276 +455%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3,231 +$3,689 +114%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,970 −$2,970 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $205 +$847 +413%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,772 −$2,772 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,283 −$2,255 -99%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $1,983 −$1,983 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,484 −$1,479 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $2,759 +$491 +18%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $697 −$697 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1,503 −$1,468 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $797 −$797 -100%
Will Kyrgyz Republic vs. Kenya end in a draw? May 31 $13 +$2 +14%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $143 +$724 +506%
Will Kyrgyz Republic win on 2026-06-03? May 31 $7 +$16 +233%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $259 −$251 -97%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $2,997 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $1,170 7h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 20¢ $1 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $5 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $61 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $2 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $41 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $123 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $12 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $7 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $7 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $4 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $16 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $10 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $7 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $86 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $2 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $3 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $3 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $38 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $0 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $5 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $1 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $48 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $290 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $14 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $159 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $14 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $117 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.41 · official $2.41 (match) · 3500 history records