Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4afa…5dfe world 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$693 (-1%) realized +$96 · open −$789
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate91%10W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,051per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$4,344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,338
7 days+$1,372
14 days+$1,372
30 days−$2,412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$1,859
world 44% +$317
politics 8% −$3,751
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.4% -5.6% 100% 17% -5.0%
≤30d 8 -8.9% -17.6% 88% 12% -16.5%
≤90d 11 -5.3% -14.3% 91% 18% -11.0%
all 11 -5.3% -14.3% 91% 18% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 18% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 0% -19.5%
15% -30.0% 0% -27.3%
20% -36.9% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$300 vs −$3,784 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$4,344
Realized+$96
Unrealized−$789
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses10 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage40d
Avg bet$4,051
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 62¢ 84¢ $2,201 $2,985 +$784 (+36%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 64¢ 42¢ $1,681 $1,099 −$582 (-35%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 30¢ 16¢ $467 $260 −$207 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $8,033 +$8 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $6,908 +$1,082 +16%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $11,520 +$248 +2%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $505 +$1 +0%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 13 $465 +$33 +7%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? Jun 01 $3,871 −$3,784 -98%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 13 $1,986 +$14 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $2,084 +$2 +0%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%? May 08 $12,928 +$1,610 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $467 46m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,681 46m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 69¢ $605 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 69¢ $4 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 69¢ $17 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 59¢ $39 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 59¢ $1,535 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $8,033 22h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $6,908 45h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6,445 45h
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $205 4d
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 4d
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $280 4d
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele BUY Yes 99¢ $8 14d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 14d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $465 15d
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 15d
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 15d
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 15d
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? SELL Yes 1¢ $31 15d
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? SELL Yes 6¢ $46 15d
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 15d
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? BUY Yes 70¢ $467 15d
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? BUY Yes 70¢ $127 15d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $977 15d
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,472 15d
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? BUY Yes 69¢ $61 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,344.06 · official $4,331.72 (match) · 59 history records