Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:42:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4af8…6daa other 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$2 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%24W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$75
14 days−$75
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$57
sports 18% −$89
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -35.9% -42.0% 27% 27% -17.3%
≤30d 35 -29.4% -36.1% 31% 29% -16.0%
≤90d 49 -3.7% -12.9% 49% 45% -12.1%
all 49 -3.7% -12.9% 49% 45% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 45% -12.1%
10% -21.2% 43% -20.5%
15% -28.8% 43% -28.2%
20% -35.8% 27% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses24 / 25
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage75d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-4%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$9 +81%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -65%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $128 +$59 +46%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $54 −$25 -45%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $114 −$49 -43%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 20 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 20 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 +$13 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 +$75 +37%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$21 -83%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $69 +$32 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$4 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5 +$8 +161%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner? May 30 $7 +$5 +67%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$15 +287%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1 +$1 +129%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $2 +$1 +46%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 02 $1 $0 -1%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $1 $0 +39%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $2 +$2 +89%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $4 +$2 +50%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $15 +$24 +165%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $2 +$2 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $48 16m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $52 20m
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $110 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $8 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $99 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 17h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $12 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $5 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $103 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 62¢ $103 34h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 35h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 35h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 51¢ $7 35h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 35h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 62¢ $22 35h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $33 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 39¢ $33 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $32 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 40h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 40h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $4 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.96 · official $159.96 (match) · 137 history records