Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4A 0x4af5…2263 crypto 1653 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$645 (-1%) realized −$645 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%1560W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$163
14 days+$79
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 215 +1.4% -8.3% 98% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 868 +0.0% -9.5% 95% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1653 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 0% -9.7%
all 1653 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$645
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1560 / 93
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1653 / 1653
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1653 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $165 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $147 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $165 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $136 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $164 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $163 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $162 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $161 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $160 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $99 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $98 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $79 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $78 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $78 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $66 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $71 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $71 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $165 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $147 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $165 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $136 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $164 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $163 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $49 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $162 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $161 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $160 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $99 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $98 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $45 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $45 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $44 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $44 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $44 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $44 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $44 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $44 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $35 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $43 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $43 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $43 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $43 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records