trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +4.8% | -5.2% | 100% | 12% | -4.8% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +4.4% | -5.5% | 100% | 7% | -5.3% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +4.4% | -5.5% | 100% | 7% | -5.3% |
| all | 14 | +4.4% | -5.5% | 100% | 7% | -5.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.5% | 7% | -5.3% |
| 10% | -14.5% | 0% | -14.3% |
| 15% | -22.8% | 0% | -22.6% |
| 20% | -30.4% | 0% | -30.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 93¢ | $100 | $106 | +$6 (+6%) |
| Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $100 | $100 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $100 | $100 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 98¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Trump say "Ronaldo" or "Messi" or "Pele" during June 24 Rally? | No | 92¢ | 90¢ | $100 | $98 | −$2 (-2%) |
| Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -2% and 0% in May? | No | 100¢ | 97¢ | $100 | $98 | −$2 (-2%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 89¢ | $81 | $80 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? | No | 94¢ | 98¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 24 | $101 | +$14 | +14% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | Jun 24 | $100 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? | Jun 24 | $21 | +$2 | +7% |
| Will Jay Byars be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? | Jun 24 | $50 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Sam McCown be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? | Jun 24 | $50 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar | Jun 24 | $50 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary | Jun 24 | $50 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary elec | Jun 19 | $50 | +$2 | +4% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | Jun 12 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? | Jun 10 | $50 | +$4 | +9% |
| Will Billy Webster win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic pri | Jun 10 | $100 | +$7 | +7% |
| Will Robert Lee be the Republican nominee for SC-04? | Jun 10 | $50 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? | Jun 09 | $50 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? | Jun 09 | $50 | +$2 | +3% |