Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:49:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4A 0x4af5…4f4e politics 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$43 (+3%) realized +$44 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate100%14W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$685now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$25
14 days+$26
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% +$15
other 38% +$4
tech 13% +$16
world 6% +$1
sports 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 12% -4.8%
≤30d 14 +4.4% -5.5% 100% 7% -5.3%
≤90d 14 +4.4% -5.5% 100% 7% -5.3%
all 14 +4.4% -5.5% 100% 7% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 7% -5.3%
10% -14.5% 0% -14.3%
15% -22.8% 0% -22.6%
20% -30.4% 0% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$685
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses14 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)14 / 22
History coverage17d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump's remarks not air? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Trump say "Ronaldo" or "Messi" or "Pele" during June 24 Rally? No 92¢ 90¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -2% and 0% in May? No 100¢ 97¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $81 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? No 94¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 24 $101 +$14 +14%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $21 +$2 +7%
Will Jay Byars be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Sam McCown be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar Jun 24 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary Jun 24 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary elec Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Billy Webster win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic pri Jun 10 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Robert Lee be the Republican nominee for SC-04? Jun 10 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $50 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 1h
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $95 1h
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -2% and 0% in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -2% and 0% in May? BUY No 100¢ $89 1h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -2% and 0% in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY No 99¢ $18 1h
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $11 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $54 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $63 1h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Trump say "Ronaldo" or "Messi" or "Pele" during June 24 Rally? BUY No 92¢ $100 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $115 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $101 9h
Will Robert Lee be the Republican nominee for SC-04? BUY No 99¢ $30 15d
Will Robert Lee be the Republican nominee for SC-04? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Robert Lee be the Republican nominee for SC-04? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 15d
Will Jay Byars be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? BUY No 99¢ $8 15d
Will Jay Byars be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? BUY No 98¢ $27 15d
Will Jay Byars be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? BUY No 98¢ $16 15d
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? BUY No 92¢ $50 15d
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary BUY No 97¢ $50 15d
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar BUY No 96¢ $50 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $684.92 · official $684.92 (match) · 57 history records