Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

4A 0x4af3…c51e sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$1 (+6%) realized +$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown92%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day8.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-3.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+6.2%	-3.9%	25%	25%	-2.9%
≤30d	4	+6.2%	-3.9%	25%	25%	-2.9%
≤90d	4	+6.2%	-3.9%	25%	25%	-2.9%
all	4	+6.2%	-3.9%	25%	25%	-2.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.9%	25%	-2.9%
10%	-13.1%	25%	-12.2%
15%	-21.5%	25%	-20.7%
20%	-29.2%	25%	-28.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.29 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.1 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$9

Realized+$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)4 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day8.3

Drawdown92%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	72¢	72¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	21¢	20¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$2	+$7	+325%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$1	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$2	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$2	1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$2	1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$2	1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$2	27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	51¢	$2	27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$2	27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$2	27h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.83 · official $8.83 (match) · 15 history records