Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:58:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4af1…b520 weather 556 markets active 2h ago coverage 657d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$234 (-4%) realized −$237 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate62%344W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$4
14 days−$16
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$254
politics 1% $0
other 0% −$5
sports 0% $0
world 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -12.7% -21.0% 31% 28% -15.9%
≤30d 223 -0.1% -9.6% 57% 20% -12.4%
≤90d 547 -1.7% -11.0% 63% 22% -13.3%
all 552 -1.6% -11.0% 62% 22% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 22% -13.2%
10% -19.5% 13% -21.5%
15% -27.3% 11% -29.1%
20% -34.4% 8% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

657d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses344 / 208
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)552 / 556
History coverage657d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 552 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Yes 21¢ 98¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+367%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Yes 14¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +210%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +305%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +310%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +486%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +318%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +337%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +259%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 +$3 +301%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.94 · official $6.94 (match) · 1386 history records