Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:12:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4aee…b58d world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$5
other 26% −$9
sports 19% +$4
politics 13% −$8
finance 5% $0
crypto 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -4.9% -13.9% 40% 10% -8.4%
≤30d 27 -1.4% -10.8% 41% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 35 -5.4% -14.4% 37% 6% -9.7%
all 46 -4.3% -13.4% 43% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 7% -9.7%
10% -21.7% 2% -18.4%
15% -29.3% 2% -26.2%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage486d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $34 −$1 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $3 +$1 +49%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $68 −$5 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $90 +$3 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $68 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $36 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $71 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $48 −$4 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $34 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $69 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $73 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $1 $0 +20%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $37 −$2 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $31 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $383 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 27 $135 −$8 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $28 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $123 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $16 −$8 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Apr 17 $129 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $462 +$5 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $221 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 09 $9 $0 +2%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2025 Memorial Tournament? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 16 $8 −$3 -32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Mar 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-04? Mar 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 4? Mar 03 $10 $0 -4%
Gonzaga vs. Washington State Mar 03 $11 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $32 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $34 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $13 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $20 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $17 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $16 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $18 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 18¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 12¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $18 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $23 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $37 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $37 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.90 · official $32.13 (match) · 186 history records