Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:51:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4A 0x4aec…4ce9 sports 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,165 (+3%) realized +$4,163 · open −$998
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate70%26W / 11L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,253per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$946est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,536
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.0% +7.7% 100% 44% +11.3%
≤30d 37 -4.5% -13.6% 70% 43% -11.9%
≤90d 37 -4.5% -13.6% 70% 43% -11.9%
all 37 -4.5% -13.6% 70% 43% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 43% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 35% -20.3%
15% -29.4% 24% -28.0%
20% -36.3% 11% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$3,589) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$928 vs −$2,424 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$4,163
Unrealized−$998
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses26 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$946
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage15d
Avg bet$3,253
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Game Master 26¢ 0¢ $1,000 $2 −$998 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,651 +$645 +39%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $3,226 +$2,098 +65%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $126 +$11 +9%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,388 +$125 +5%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2,258 +$166 +7%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,006 +$202 +10%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,011 +$418 +21%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,867 +$339 +12%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,001 +$31 +3%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $4,113 +$1,207 +29%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $4,007 +$200 +5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $7,157 −$7,089 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $4,763 +$6,506 +137%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,029 −$2,000 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $3,875 +$3,799 +98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $6,379 −$2,000 -31%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $5,195 +$2,184 +42%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $6,892 −$2,000 -29%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $4,044 −$4,000 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $2,478 +$1,092 +44%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $2,018 +$812 +40%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $2,012 +$483 +24%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $9,417 −$2,000 -21%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $2,011 +$459 +23%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $2,016 +$724 +36%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $2,014 +$607 +30%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $3,015 −$827 -27%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $4,005 +$158 +4%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $5,027 −$1,000 -20%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $3,028 −$388 -13%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $2,021 +$1,053 +52%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $3,619 −$3,589 -99%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $2,003 +$101 +5%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $1,989 −$1,774 -89%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $1,004 +$166 +16%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $4,913 +$477 +10%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $992 +$67 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $3,921 16m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 91¢ $1,003 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 26¢ $1,022 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 72¢ $1,008 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 70¢ $1,009 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $2,296 13h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 74¢ $38 14h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 74¢ $101 14h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 74¢ $1,008 14h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 74¢ $101 14h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 74¢ $101 14h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 74¢ $101 14h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 73¢ $101 14h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 46¢ $102 14h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $5,325 15h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 51¢ $101 15h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 27¢ $137 16h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 28¢ $102 16h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $102 16h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $102 16h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $102 16h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 47¢ $102 16h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 44¢ $102 16h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $102 16h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 48¢ $102 16h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 45¢ $102 16h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 45¢ $102 16h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 46¢ $102 16h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 51¢ $101 16h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 51¢ $101 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.94 · official $1.94 (match) · 201 history records