Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4ae8…9229
other · 835 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$26 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$24 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses383 / 451
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)834 / 835
History coverage185d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 1 History 834 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$25
14 days+$4
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-05-13? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-21? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-09? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder Lakers 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will CF Pachuca vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Timberwolves 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$6 +102%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$8 +172%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$12 +113%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -46%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $6 −$6 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $6 +$4 +62%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $6 −$6 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $6 −$6 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $11 +$7 +64%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $4 +$5 +128%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $6 −$6 -98%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 28 $7 +$3 +46%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $11 −$11 -98%
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? May 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $11 −$11 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $5 +$6 +114%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $5 +$7 +145%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $5 +$9 +171%
Will CD Guadalajara vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Will CF Pachuca vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw? May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CF América win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2 −$1 -98%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $4 +$3 +67%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 +$6 +307%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% +$34
sports 42% −$18
crypto 7% −$45
culture 1% −$2
world 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 2h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $12 6h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 7h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 83¢ $22 23h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 23h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 29h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 35h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $5 4d
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix BUY Yes 31¢ $2 6d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri BUY Yes 33¢ $2 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $6 7d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 61¢ $6 8d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 56¢ $6 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $6 9d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $5 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 100¢ $9 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $4 13d
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 13d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 13d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +23.2% +11.4% 60% 60% +30.0%
≤30d 43 -28.4% -35.2% 35% 35% -26.7%
≤90d 349 -19.9% -27.5% 38% 38% -23.1%
all 834 -6.3% -15.2% 46% 46% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 46% -10.3%
10% -23.3% 45% -18.9%
15% -30.7% 43% -26.7%
20% -37.5% 36% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.97 · official $9.97 (match) · 1831 history records