Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4ae7…087f crypto 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$456 (+5%) realized +$456 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%62W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days+$32
14 days−$108
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$187
other 21% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -18.3% -26.1% 38% 37% -8.3%
≤30d 167 -19.9% -27.5% 37% 37% -9.8%
≤90d 167 -19.9% -27.5% 37% 37% -9.8%
all 167 -19.9% -27.5% 37% 37% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.5% 37% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -34.4% 33% -18.4%
15% -40.8% 29% -26.3%
20% -46.6% 26% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$28 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$456
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses62 / 105
Open positions0
Markets (closed)167 / 167
History coverage11d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 167 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$16 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$25 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$38 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$12 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$30 +143%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$5 -36%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $81 +$157 +195%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$17 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $74 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$9 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $70 +$23 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$27 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $72 +$36 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$9 -84%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $27 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $15 −$12 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $71 −$11 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$46 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $38 −$22 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$19 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$44 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$28 +95%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $31 +$11 +34%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $39 +$32 +83%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $253 +$184 +73%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$50 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$36 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$42 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $38 −$32 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$38 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $83 −$29 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $67 +$56 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $84 +$53 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $62 −$54 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $42 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $31 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $17 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $33 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $54 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $29 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $79 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $32 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $12 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $17 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $51 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 50m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 21¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 27¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 34¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 37¢ $238 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $77 3h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $12 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $29 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $79 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $74 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $15 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $14 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $83 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 442 history records