Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4ae5…75db crypto 53 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22 (-7%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day63.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -22.0% -29.4% 42% 28% -20.2%
≤30d 53 -22.0% -29.4% 42% 28% -20.2%
≤90d 53 -22.0% -29.4% 42% 28% -20.2%
all 53 -22.0% -29.4% 42% 28% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.4% 28% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -36.2% 26% -27.8%
15% -42.3% 19% -34.8%
20% -48.0% 15% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage2d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day63.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$23 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$15 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$20 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records